Coin flip: Difference between revisions

Throughout history, several researchers have collected thousands of coin flips. In the 18th century, Count de Buffon collected 2,048 uninterrupted sequences of 'heads'. In the 19th century, Karl Pearson flipped a coin 24,000 times to obtain 12,012 tails. And in the 20th, John Kerrich flipped a coin 10,000 times for a total of 5,067 heads. However, these experiments do not allow a test of the Diaconis model, mostly because it was not recorded whether the coin landed on the same side that it started. A notable exception is a sequence of 40,000 coin flips collected by Janet Larwood and Priscilla Ku in 2009. Larwood always started the flips heads-up and Ku always tails-up. Unfortunately, the results (10,231/20,000 heads by Larwood and 10,014/20,000 tails by Ku) do not provide compelling evidence for or against the Diaconis hypothesis.

 

 

The simplicity and perceived fairness of a coin flip, coupled with the widespread availability of coins, may explain why it is often used to make even high-stakes decisions. For example, in 1903 a coin flip was used to determine which of the Wright brothers would attempt the first flight; in 2003, a coin toss decided which off two companies would be awarded a public project in Toronto; in 2004 and 2013, a coin flip was used to break the tie in local political elections in the Philippines; in 1968, a coin flip determined the winner of the European Championship semi-final soccer match between Italy and the Soviet Union (an event which Italy went on to win); and in 1959, a coin flip decided who would get the last plane seat for the tour of rock star Buddy Holly (which crashed and left no survivors)

 

 

== References ==